Rambling with large words

My backyard has two bare spots.  One, where I stand, is longer than wide.  Where Carson stands, the grass is dead over a fifteen by twenty foot area, trampled into bare dirt by the pursuit of innumerable grounders.  We have always played baseball.  When Carson was small, we would adjourn to the basement with his MLB sponsored plastic bat, and he would hit hundreds of pitches with the soft plastic balls culled from his ball pit.  His first full sentence was, “hit by pitch, take your base.”  His bedroom is decorated by a series of shelves, custom-built by his great-grandfather, which exactly replicate the number of teams in the major league divisions.  He has a hat from each team, which he shuffles on the shelves each morning to reflect the current standings.  We are not happy that the Astros are moving leagues.  Those are our baseball bona fides, as they are.  The point is not to impress you.  I am fairly certain that you aren’t reading.

The point is that I thought about all of these things when I read Sam Mellinger’s kind of column reprinting a reader letter disclaiming allegiance to the Royals and Chiefs.  My first reaction, based on the proportion of capitalized letters, was that the reader was primarily a Chiefs fan.  The most severe complaints, if one measures in the upper case, concern the quarterback position.  Perhaps that assessment is uncharitable.  But complaining about the Royals is much like complaining about gravity.  The Royals being a crappy baseball team is really just the natural order of things.  Acting like you are surprised or dismayed about it is a bit disingenuous if you have been paying a modicum of attention over the period of years that postdates 1985.  Now seems like an extraordinarily odd time to abandon the local baseball franchise, considering any reasonable estimate would have to concede a fairly substantial improvement from the days of Mark Redman, All-Star.

The better point is to recognize a profound debt of thanks to writers like Rany Jazayerli and Michael Engel who cemented how our family experiences baseball.  We have always had the zen rhythm of catch in the backyard.  But with the vernacular of BABIP and WAR we have a new and improved way to complain and obsess and compare and laugh and think.  Largely about Jeff Francoeur.  Carson’s gifted presentation is about the market inefficiency of free-market starting pitching.  This is the new iteration of the hoary myth that baseball bonds parents and their children in ways that little else can.  But I believe it.  Thanks, Rany.  And thanks, Michael.  Though, full disclosure, Michael helps coach our U12 baseball team.  Though we would appreciate it if he showed up a little more for practice.

2013?

On July 10, 2012, the world turned their heads toward Kansas City while they hosted the All-Star game. Prince Fielder of the Detroit Tigers won the Home Run Derby, and what is the definition of a dumpster fire trade was capitalized. Yes, former Royal, Melky Cabrera won the All-Star game MVP, while still in the lead for the NL batting title. And you have to think that the Royals got a halfway decent return for the Giants star, and then you remember, that it is the Royals, the only team in baseball to spend an additional 24MM for 19 points of win %, and the only team in baseball with a scouting director for a GM. The Kansas City Royals who two months ago traded the best player in baseball for a starting pitcher with an ERA of 7.76. Today however, they traded a disgraced PED user for their only solid starter. Melky Cabrera’s batting average before his stats magically took a bump, and after;

Before: .262/.324/.370
Average HR/RBI’s per year: 8/54

After: .326/.365/.493
Average HR/RBI’s per year: 15/74

That is just not right. In the process the Royals also secured Jeff Francoeur to a 2 year 16MM extension. Jeff Francoeur has -3.0 WAR this year. So great job Dayton Moore! You did it again, but at least Frenchy isn’t here on a work visa, and he doesn’t get hit in the back with fly balls. But even blind squirrels find an acorn from time to time, and out of the ashes of what could be contemplated as the worst trade in MLB history, came Jeremy Guthrie. A man who’s ERA was 5.83 points higher at Coors Field than it was on the road.  Jeremy Guthrie, who was the Baltimore Orioles #1 starter for a matter of years, Jeremy Guthrie, who is better than Luke Hochevar. Yes, the Luke Hochevar that was selected ahead of Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Ian Kennedy. The Luke Hochevar whose career low in ERA is 4.68, The Luke Hochevar who either has “great stuff” is “tipping his pitches” or is “throwing the cutter to much” or maybe he just “throws too many pitches” (yes, he throws too many pitches in a Royals uniform).  Ya, THAT Luke Hochevar. Whatever the case may be, Hochevar is getting ready to pass Kyle Davies for the all time high ERA with at least 120 starts. And a couple of weeks ago Dayton Moore and Ned Yost hosted a press conference about why exactly they are undoubtedly going to bring Hochevar back for another miserable 2013 campaign. And Dayton Moore also refuses to call up Wil Myers, who has just 4 fewer home runs than Francoeur has RBI’s.

Jeff Francoeur is the worst player in baseball. He is dead last in the league in WAR (Wins above Replacement, how many more wins you would get with this player, than an Irving Falu type player). His Rfield (the value of runs the player creates or gives up with his glove) is -14. I mean, even with my various kabetching about Hochevar, he is better than Frenchy.

The earlier point I made about 24MM for 19 points of win %, what I meant was .019 points of win percentage. I am sure Dayton Moore is a brilliant man, but he spent that 24 million on;

Jeff Francoeur: 16MM, 2 years
Jonathan Broxton: 4MM, 1 year
Jonathan Sanchez: 5.6MM, 1 year
Yuniesky Betancourt: 2MM, 1 year

If you add that up, it comes out around 27, but Francoeur was paid 2.5MM last year. So out of those signings, you have 2 DFA’s (designated for assignment, Betancourt and Sanchez), One trade (Broxton) and a -3.0 WAR (no analysis needed). Maybe the recent call-up of Jake Odorizzi will help the Royal’s jenga tower of a starting rotation finish the season, but I don’t think you are going to go on many winning streaks when you are running the penultimate fly ball pitcher in Bruce Chen out there every 5th day, and in the small possibility that I have not made this clear enough, Luke Hochevar isn't exactly an ace either. On that note, remember that amazing, lefty heavy, franchise saving farm system the Royals had a couple of years ago, even without Odorizzi seeing the light of a Royals minor league uniform? Look and see how well that farm system from 2010 has done;

Eric Hosmer, MLB, 1B
2012: .237/.311/.367

Mike Moustakas, MLB, 3B
2012: .246/.298/.422

Wil Myers, AAA, OF
2012: .314/.387/.600
(worth mentioning that Myers has 37 HR’s)

John Lamb, RKL, LHP
*Tommy John surgery*

Mike Montgomery, AA, LHP
2012: 5-12, 6.07 ERA

Christian Colon, AAA, IF
2012: .301/.376/.413

Danny Duffy, MLB, LHP
*Tommy John surgery*

Chris Dwyer, AA, LHP
2012: 8-12 5.89 ERA


Aaron Crow, MLB, RHP
2012: 3-1 3.36 ERA

Brett Eibner, A+,OF
2012: .199/.298/.408

So, if I were giving them letter grades it would go like this;

Hosmer; C
Moustakas; B-
Myers; A
Lamb; incomplete
Montgomery; F-
Colon; B-
Duffy; B-
Dwyer; F-
Crow; A-
Eibner; I, for I don't care, because he will never see the light of a Royals uniform.

So, we have 2 major league players who we hope are better than they have shown. One fantastic replacement for Francoeur, but at this point, I would be happy to have Daniel Nava replacing Frenchy. One guy who will never see Kauffman Stadium if he doesn't move to 2nd, along with Gio not panning out. 2 Tommy John surgeries. One good reliever. 2 left handers that got demoted to AA. One guy that will never see the majors period. 8 of the 9 Royals position players are settled. If Dayton Moore would bring us a little starting pitching, we could be a legitimate contender in 2013. The Royals are currently closer to being a contender than they have been in a long time. So if we hold on to hope, and don't hit that off button on your television quite yet, it might pay off.